As of February 7th, Qinhuangdao port coal inventory to break 8000000 tons of inventory warning line, a record since 2013 a new high since February. If you add the Caofeidian port, port and Tianjin port, the port inventory of power coal of 4 northern port is nearly 22000000 tons. Because the downstream demand was not significantly warmer, the inventory data is still have continued to rise in may. Through the four quarter of 2013 market prices continued to rise, the boom of the smooth movement of short-term rebound, the coal industry market suffered a brutal "unusually cold spell in early spring".
More serious is, high inventory is not limited to the terminal, and has been in the coal enterprises and coal users of industrial chain transmission. The monitoring results of boom index of coal industry shows, up to 2013 the end of the fourth quarter, coal industrial manufactured goods capital year-on-year growth of 11.8%, relatively on the quarter up 1.4 percentage points. From the China coal industry association data show that, as of 12 at the end of last year, coal enterprises in coal of about 84000000 tons, an increase of about 30000000 tons more than the same period in 2011. Since this year, the coal enterprises inventory growth momentum has not weakened.
Coal storage key power enterprises, as of 2013 12 at the end of the month, focus on power generation enterprise stored coal 81590000 tons, grow 0.6% compared to the same period. The situation since 2014, electricity coal situation also exists motivation to continue to increase. In addition, iron and steel, cement, chemical and other industries tied to resolve the excess production capacity and energy-saving emission reduction pressure, coal consumption is also reduced.
In general, the coal enterprises high inventory, the port coal stockpiles high, power plant coal inventory "three high" situation has been formed. The cause of coal high inventory mainly have two aspects. From the supply perspective, in recent years the coal industry continue to carry out large-scale industrial investment, productivity construction relatively advanced, the concentration of the release of production capacity, in the downstream demand downturn, the capacity is difficult to effectively digest. And the fourth quarter of last year, retaliatory rebound in coal prices send the wrong signals market, resulting in some coal enterprises regardless of "industry is in a period of cold winter" reality, full capacity production, resulting in coal inventory backlog. At the same time, with the price advantage of imported coal, especially the retaliatory rebound in domestic coal prices, continue to impact the domestic coal market, aggravate the relative surplus of domestic coal supply, also increased the coal stocks continued to increase each link.
From the demand perspective, this year, the weather warmer rare appeared in many provinces in the country, power peaks winter pressure abated, electricity coal reduced; coincides with the Spring Festival, the downstream industrial enterprises in coal consumption for sharp decline; downstream industry influence in the policy factors, coal demand weakened, the enthusiasm to buy coal obviously reduce. The fourth quarter of last year, the coal market has been "limitless space up" of the market, although coal prices rose, but the growth rate of sales revenue is by to drop by, indicating that the market demand has not increased. Since the beginning of this year, coal prices have continued to decline in market demand is weak, the Qinhuangdao port 5500 kcal coal prices continued to decline in January 29th, fell to 584 yuan / ton. High inventory, prices fall, will enable the operation of coal enterprises difficult to continue to increase.
The industry has a point of view is optimistic that the coal industry boom, the trend has stabilized, the index is expected to repair, industrial economic cyclical adjustment is a soft landing. However, the long term, the coal industry is still facing the global excess capacity of coal, coal imports continued to shock, release and other factors on domestic coal production effect. In addition, the country to promote energy-saving emission reduction, strengthen ecological civilization construction work continued to advance, but also reduces the coal consumption in a certain degree. Short term power coal supply and demand, after the Spring Festival in the off-season, coupled with the January traders to import contract centralized cash, the domestic coal demand will be further inhibited, the domestic coal to inventory process will continue, the market supply and demand of coal, the overall easy structural surplus trend will not change. Therefore, the possibility of coal industry in the short term to get rid of the unfavorable situation, out of the industry "winter".
For the coal enterprises, to get through this round of "unusually cold spell in early spring" of the market, the key is to accelerate the transformation of the production mode of operation, in the resource constraints, cost constraints, capital constraints, market constraints, green constraints, to find new growth of endogenous power. From the macroscopic aspect, we must speed up the reform and development to rely on industry unfavorable factors in the operation, especially to more fully promote the coal industry market reform, the market plays a decisive role in the allocation of resources as soon as possible. At the same time, to guide the production of the coal industrial structure, increase the elimination of backward production capacity, make every attempt to resolve the relative surplus of production capacity has been formed. Only the virtuous cycle development, the coal enterprises will not fear "cold".